{"id":917,"date":"2014-08-28T01:23:50","date_gmt":"2014-08-28T01:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/?p=917"},"modified":"2014-08-28T01:23:50","modified_gmt":"2014-08-28T01:23:50","slug":"2015-u-s-group-predicts-big-win-for-jonathan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/?p=917","title":{"rendered":"2015: U.S group predicts big win for Jonathan"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>World\u2019s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for next year\u2019s presidential election in Nigeria, predicting that President Goodluck Jonathan would be re-elected.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It warned that a \u201cdesperate\u201d Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), \u201cfacing the potential loss of its power (which dates back to 1999), would exacerbate profligacy, policy politicization, oil theft, and regional\/sectarian tensions\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Eurasia gave PDP a 75% chance of winning the election but said APC, with 25%, still had a chance \u201cif it can mobilize behind a strong northern presidential candidate that has Buhari\u2019s backing and a vice president who can deliver votes and high turnout in the southwest\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The group said the defections that affected PDP have stopped and have even been reversed in some cases, noting that the biggest opposition party, All Progressives Congress (APC), was in \u201cdisarray\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The report was obviously written before the Osun governorship election, which was won by APC, as it only made reference to the Ekiti poll which saw the opposition party lose in every local government.<\/p>\n<p>The Africa Director of Eurasia, Philippe de Pontet, wrote that the six months leading to the presidential election \u201cwill be tense\u201d, forecasting \u201cconstant politicking, attacks by Boko Haram\u2026 and policy stagnation\u201d \u2500 and a possible outbreak of riot in northern Nigeria if Jonathan is re-elected.<\/p>\n<p>Pontet wrote: \u201cA Jonathan win could feed political unrest in the north, but makes it less likely that rebels in the Niger Delta re-ignite their attacks on oil infrastructure and personnel.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Nigeria\u2019s political risk was upgraded from \u201cnegative\u201d to \u201cneutral\u201d in what he described as \u201ca positive net for political stability\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Pontet said it was unlikely there would be fiscal or monetary policy \u201cupheaval\u201d and that the campaigns may not completely upend the investment climate or reverse Nigeria\u2019s economic momentum.<\/p>\n<p>Eurasia Group has offices in New York, Washington, DC, London and Tokyo.<a href=\"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/jonathan2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-918\" alt=\"jonathan\" src=\"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/jonathan2.jpg\" width=\"274\" height=\"184\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>World\u2019s largest political risk advisory, Eurasia Group, has released its forecast for next year\u2019s presidential election in Nigeria, predicting that President Goodluck Jonathan would be re-elected. It warned that a \u201cdesperate\u201d Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), \u201cfacing the potential loss of its power (which dates back to 1999), would exacerbate profligacy, policy politicization, oil theft, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"spay_email":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[38,31],"class_list":["post-917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national","tag-nigeria-electioin","tag-president-goodluck-jonathan"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/jonathan2.jpg","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4oswh-eN","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=917"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":919,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/917\/revisions\/919"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/918"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/newsroom247.com.ng\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}